Friday, December 31, 2004

Tsunami Relief

Once again the domestic news outlets, particularly the TV stations, have failed to describe American aid to the tsunami ravaged Indian littoral countries. Here are more detailed reports. The first is from Australia's North Territories News.. Another describes why ships are so important when clean drinking water is the main concern. They can provide 50,000 gallons of drinking water per day. And The Australian has more details.

We’re sending the Abraham Lincoln carrier group consisting of the Abraham Lincoln CVN 72, Shoup DDG 86, Shiloh CG 67, Benfold DDG 65 & Ranier T-AOE 7.

Additionally, we are sending Expeditionary Strike Group 5 with Marines aboard. The group consists of the Bonhomme Richard LHD-6, Duluth LPD-6, Milius DDG 69, Rushmore LSD 47, Thatch FFG 43 and Pasadena SSN 752 with the Coast Guard cutter Munro WHEC 724 attached.

Note that the Abraham Lincoln group will be going to Aceh province in Indonesia, a hotbed of Islamofascists. It has 12 desperately needed helicopters. Expeditionary Strike Group 5, with 25 helicopters, will be going to the Bay of Bengal. It will have access to northern Sri Lanka, home of the Sea Tigers. Here is a quote from the December 2004 issue of Proceedings page 54, “the Sea Tigers, the maritime component of the Tamil guerrilla groups operating in northern Sri Lanka, frequently use maritime attacks to disrupt the Sri Lankan Navy. They seem focused on suicide techniques, but to attack targets in port, this group uses innovative maritime technologies such as midget submarines, covert infiltration/exfiltration of suicide divers, and one-man suicide torpedoes. Since July 1990, the Sea Tigers have executed more than 40 sea borne suicide attacks, killing an undisclosed number of people”.

Won’t the native population be surprised to find themselves visited by a Marine Expeditionary Unit Special Operations Capable MEU(SOC)?

Bummer Dietz Redux

We're having more fun over at Scylla and Charybdis! I think Bummer is getting bored waiting for Viacom/CBS to get off the dime.
But he should take heart. Wednesday's 60 Minutes II did a segment with their reporter embedded with Navy SEALs in Afghanistan. Not only did the SEALs know the who, what, when, where and how about their target, a Taliban leader. They killed him! And there were no other casualties and no collateral damage. Could it be we're winning the Global War on Terrorism? And CBS admits the truth? I'm feeling faint!
You should also stop by www.Rathergate.com .

Thursday, December 30, 2004

Fighting High Rise Fires in Chicago

From an article in today's Chicago Sun-Times by Mark Konkol
Here are the recommendations from the Witt Commission following the Cook County Administration Building fire of October 2003.
"*Creating a more extensive study guide and training program aimed at getting building owners to prepare more effective emergency action plans, including evacuation procedures.
*Developing a new "high-rise incident command order" that requires command staff to know where disabled building occupants are, and deploying more rescue personnel to search stairwells and "refuge areas."
*Training the entire department on protocols when responding to a high-rise fire."
The question that remains is will they create a similar list following the LaSalle Bank Building fire?

American Spectator

Follow the link above to an ongoing debate about trading off the mortgage interest deduction against personalization of Social Security. Here is my letter published there today.
It seems that David Hogberg does not get the "vision thing." His plea for incrementalism ignores the desire for fairness and moral clarity on the part of the electorate. One reason to eliminate the home mortgage deduction is as part of a trade off to save Social Security. That is a big issue where the voters might consider making some compromises. The home mortgage deduction goes exclusively to homeowners. Those who rent or are saving to buy their first home get nothing. Is that fair to the younger generations who already are charged with supporting Social Security? NO!!! But why do anything with housing? Because the best place for the timid to put their personalized Social Security funds is into their own homes. That is the investment they know best. It is likely to be the largest investment they will make in their lifetimes. And it is a tangible asset that has real palpable worth. They do not need to withstand the vagaries of Wall Street. Let the mortgage brokers do that. Now it might be desirable to sell the plan by adopting a phase-in period. Allow the homeowner to deduct mortgage interest on a declining scale. Reduce the deduction 10% a year until phase out after ten years or re-financing of the loan, whichever comes first. Since the average term of a mortgage is well below ten years, this will allow the homeowner to adapt without undue strain. Vision, fairness and practicality; that is the ticket!
8:12 AM Update: Today's Wall Street Journal Capital column by David Wessel (www.wsj.com subscription required) has the three Democratic camps:
1) The Ostrich (AKA the Kerry Campaign) - there is no problem.
2) Rebecca of Sunnybrook Farm - Growth in the economy will solve the problem for us (maybe so under Republican direction!).
3) The Diamond-Orszag raise taxes & cut benefits plan. Mr. Wessel notes that Peter Diamond is with MIT. While MIT is world renown for its technology, economics is the "dismal science". In economics I'm inclined to sing "M-I-T-K-E-Y..M-O-U-S-E". This plan is to raise the total payroll tax from the current 12.4% (split between employer & employee) to 13.7% in 2045 and then 15.2% in 2075! They also "reduce benefits for those born after 1949 to reflect lengthening life expectancy".
Somehow I don't think Diamond-Orszag is going to be as popular with Generation X as my plan!

Wednesday, December 29, 2004

Insurgency Self-Destructs

This AP story tells of the increasing futility of the foreign born insurgency. Now they've taken to destroying the support of those in pro-Saddam neighborhoods. At the gain of killing 7 officers, they have killed 22 civilians. Not an effective way to win "hearts and minds" is it? When the Ba'athist Sunnis in these neighborhoods abandon them (and they will) they will be totally exposed. They've lost but do not realize it yet. And they know that Iraqi security forces will follow up on every anonymous lead to hunt them down. Looks like the Iraqis are about ready to ensure their own security so our forces can "blow this pop stand". Let's start bringing them home by Valentines Day!

South West Asia Treaty Organization - SWATO

What is needed now is to convene a meeting of the defense ministers of the nations of South West Asia to investigate the formation of a South West Asia Treaty Organization (SWATO). We should follow the precedents of SEATO and NATO. The invited nations would be Iraq, Turkey, Cyprus, Israel and Jordan. Let’s look at each in turn.

Iraq is rapidly becoming the hub of a new democratic movement in Asia. And it is home to the American military might in the region. Its inclusion is readily apparent.

Turkey might be an object of some suspicion because of its decision not to allow American forces to pass through during Operation Iraqi Freedom. But this ignores Turkey’s long and valiant history. During OIF, the Kurds fought and defeated Saddam’s forces with air support from America. This front was quite similar to operations by the Northern Alliance in Afghanistan. These Kurdish forces had been sustained for over a decade through trade into Turkey. Turkey has been a stalwart member of NATO for over a half century. And they were directly on the front line with a common border with the Soviet Union. Turkey’s armed forces dwarfed those of say, France. Those old enough to remember the Cuban Missile Crisis should recall that the crisis was diffused by the Soviet withdrawal of their missiles from Cuba followed by American withdrawal of Atlas missiles from Turkey! And Turkey will appreciate American efforts to support its inclusion in the European Union (although maybe they’d prefer to join another E.U., the Etats-Unis -the members of SWATO).

Cyprus is a small island that has been divided between the Turkish and Greek sides. It has been a festering sore in relations between those nations and is a block to Turkey’s entry into the European Union. They are included to build cooperation among neighbors.

Israel is the home of democracy in the Arab world (aside - note that Turks and Kurds are definitely not Arabs). They have been an American ally since the founding of the nation in the late 1940s. And they are a dominating military power in the region. They and Turkey are the big dogs of SWATO.

Jordan has been an ally of the United States for many years. But it has often chosen a “nuanced” position that has raised some American hackles. But no one should doubt the influence of the Queen mother, Queen Noor. Born the American Lisa Halaby, she is a powerful force for decency in Jordan and the region.

So in sum, we have a circle of nations with definite prospects located in the neighborhood. Now comes the fun part. Have you noticed that the U.S. Navy has had little to do in Iraq of late? Maybe it is time to make the Commander of the Sixth Fleet the Joint Task Force Commander charged with overseeing SWATO. He could organize a joint cruise of American, Turkish and Israeli warships in the eastern Mediterranean, say 13 nautical miles west of Beirut. Do some testing of tactics against missile gun boats in anticipation of the forthcoming LCS class of American warships.

That should have a very interesting effect on the geographic center of SWATO, Damascus. How would you like to be Bashir Assad and suddenly find yourself surrounded by newly cooperative military powers with a long history of grievances against you? Would you support Ba’athist insurgencies in Iraq? Would you hide WMDs for Saddam? And would you get nervous about all those Top Gun pilots, who blasted the Taliban out of their caves at Tora Bora, flying off their carriers just minutes away? Just asking!

Tuesday, December 28, 2004

Atmospheric Physics Part IV

The enormous amount of energy released in the earthquake and resultant tsunami off Sumatra dwarfs the efforts of Man. It truly raises the question, can Man really affect the environment in the face of the power of Nature? Are we capable of changing the climate through global warming? Let’s do some calculations.

One common unit of measure in these exalted realms is the kiloton equivalent of TNT (KT). This is given as 4,000,000,000,000 joules. Using the conversion factor of 1 British Thermal Unit (BTU) is equal to 1,055 joules, we come to the result that 1 KT = 3,790,000,000 BTUs.

Now let us consider a volume of air one mile on a side (i.e. 1 cubic mile). Using this calculator to figure the pressure at one mile (5280 feet) with a sea level pressure of 14.7 psi and a temperaure of 27 degrees C, we arrive at a pressure of 12.24 psi @ 5280 feet. So a column of air one mile high and one square inch in area horizontally weights 14.7 – 12.24 = 2.46 pounds. Multiplying by 144 square inches per square foot, then by 5280 times 5280 (feet/mile) we arrive at a total mass of 9,875,644,416 pounds for one cubic mile of air starting at sea level up.
The heat required to raise the temperature of that mass just one degree F, is equal to the mass times the specific heat (.24 BTU/pound – degree F). Doing the math we find that it takes about 2,370,000,000 BTUs to raise the temperature a single degree. That is 0.625 KT energy equivalent. I assume you all have seen the air temperature rise 20 degrees from morning to mid-afternoon. That would work out to be 12.5 KT or an amount equal to the atomic bomb at Hiroshima. Chicago has an area of 89 square miles. So heating just the lower mile of the atmosphere takes over 1 Megaton (MT) equivalent of energy. The Sun drops The Bomb on Chicago every summer day! Man is quite puny in the face of Nature, as was proven yesterday.

On Board Ship - Honolulu - Jan. 18th, 1858

With the ability of reading the thoughts of today's servicemen through their blogs, today I'll present a picture of the past. This is a transcription of a letter written to my great-grandfather (who was eight years old) by his older brother.

Dear Brother Frankey,

I do love you so much that I could not let this mail go off without carrying a letter for you. I know that you would like to receive one from me because I know that you love me, and I am extremely obliged to you for answering the letter that I sent you from Rio De Janiero. I was much pleased to see that you wrote so good a hand and also to learn that you was at the head of your class, and more so to hear that you were enjoying good health. I wish dear Frankey that I was at home so as to take you out to ride with old Morgan and have a fine sleigh ride the same as we used to have last winter but I am a great many miles from you but I hope to be with you again before many month. I do not think I can write a very long or interesting letter this time, but I shall endeavor to write a long one to send to you by the next mail. The little boys and girls are quite different from the Brazilians, here they go round with scarcely any clothing on. They are a little darker than the people of Brazil. They always in swimming. I have see little boys not a bit bigger than you jump off the jib boom of a large ship into the water and also women and little girls about a little as Sis jump off of very high places, it is quite amusing to see them. I hope that you all will have good health while I am afraid that I shall not be home time enough to get any early fruit or to enjoy the 17th and 18th with you. I was very glad to here that you had a good sabath school teacher and that you went every Sunday. Give my love to all the folks around great and small and tell them that I want to see them all very much. Tell Mrs. Goodnow that I shall write here a letter while I am here, tell her that I think a great deal of her because she was always so kind to me, give my love to Freddy and Sis and tell them that I want to see them very much, give my thanks for William and tell him to write me another letter for you that is if you cannot write one your self and now dear Frankey hoping that you will be a good boy and help our dear mother, I close remaining your most aff. Brother

Monday, December 27, 2004

Santa Tour 2005

Have you noticed how things in Iraq are different now? No reports of bombings since Christmas Eve. Two major Al-Qaida leaders captured. Osama Bin Laden indicating through seconds that he’s ready to become a politician. (BTW Has anybody looked for him in Egypt?).

It seems he has come to realize that Santa’s Elves get their basic training at Parris Island. And when they finish their active tours, they join the Reserves and run Toys for Tots.

With the success of the new stops in Iraq on the Santa Tour 2004, plans are set to add more new stops in Lebanon and Syria in 2005. And preliminary planning is taking place to add Iran & North Korea in the future.

So from the Pajamahadeen, where you get a different perspective on things, let me repeat Santa’s greeting but with emphasis on the part normally said sotto voce “Merry Christmas to All and to All a Good Night - SEMPER FI!”

Wednesday, December 22, 2004

(Dis)Honestly Biased

Here are my comments regarding an article by Jeffery Friedman in today's National Review Online.

The article has missed the most common technique used to manipulate lazy journalists, the drive-by "expert". Frequently used by Naderite organizations with "warm and fuzzy" names that couldn't possibly be biased (or could they!!!). Then they arrange a press conference announcing the results of their "investigations". The target of the investigation is not given access to the report in order to prepare a response (i.e. they are denied discovery in the court of public opinion). Generally when questioned, the best they can do is indicate they "will have no comment until we have seen the report". Since there is zero follow up by the reporters after the target has seen the report, the targets effectively get lynched. They certainly are denied due process.

Since the Naderite organization is never effectively refuted in real time, it builds a reputation for accuracy in the reporter's mind that they do not deserve. I've posted a comment on Dateline NBC, the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety and their target, Kia, below that should be helpful for reference. You're A Good Man Charlie Brown

Also note that the tendency to practice pack journalism offers protection from libel suits even though the report is libelous. The first report just reports what the Naderites said. The pack reports what the first media outlet said. Therefore, even a false report is not repeated by a single entity and therefore does not meet the strict "reckless disregard for the truth standard". They'll claim anybody can make a mistake, they just repeated what others had said. Nice little scam, huh! And it explains why there are usually no follow up reports; if they re-tell a lie they could be exposed to libel suits!

MERRY CHRISTMAS

I’m going to visit my brothers for Christmas, so you may not see much here until next week. We’ll see. So I wish you a
MERRY CHRISTMAS TO ALL AND TO ALL A GOOD DAY! [I am a pajamahadeen ;-)]

P.S. While I’m away keep a look out for Science Journal in the Wall Street Journal on Fridays (subscription required). Sharon Begley has a thread going on improving science education in schools. I’ve sent her two e-mails, one of which is reproduced below (Blue Angel Magic 12/10). This is a critical issue for our nation.

Timothy Birdnow

Who is that Kid? He wrote a brilliant piece on the folly of Global Warming in The American Thinker. If he keeps this up, I’ll never get another piece published there! (Look way back in October for my Atmospheric Physics series in this blog). Thomas Lifson must be counting his blessings for the plethora of writers drawn to his site.

LaSalle Bank Fire Update

The initial reports are coming in on the investigation of the LaSalle Bank Building fire. Here’s the report in the Chicago Tribune (I‘d link to the Sun-Times story but look at that warning - “This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.” - What about linking?).

As was the case in the Cook County Administration Building fire, this one started above the dropped ceiling panels. That means it was out of the reach of sprinklers, even if they had been installed. A blast from a good sized carbon dioxide fire extinguisher would have blown the ceiling panel out of the way, cooled and suppressed the fire (carbon dioxide is safe for electrical fires). Have a co-worker call 911 to have the CFD confirm the fire is out! A lot better than a 5-11 alarm with specials!

And the Sun-Times story describes “paper-backed insulated ceiling tiles and paper-wrapped insulated pipes”. That doesn’t seem to be very fire resistant.

Tuesday, December 21, 2004

Global Warming - Beyond Kyoto

The news from Brasil is not good. The Third World demagogues want to continue their ankle-biting rather than look at forward looking proposals by the U.S. to develop new, more energy efficient technologies. If there is one thing I know from all those days in Thermodynamics class, it's energy efficient technologies.
The core of the U.S. position to introduce better technologies into existing facilities can be reduced to two words, Gray Davis. Remember him? The guy who got recalled in favor of Ahnold. The reason the California energy crisis was sooo expensive is that the lack of long term contracts meant electric power was purchased on the spot market. Added to this was a requirement to pay everyone the same price. This means that the least efficient producer sets the market price for everyone. They turned on some peaker plants from the fifties! Ouch, $400/ megawatt hour. To compound the problem, Davis didn't do anything except try to blame the problem on those Texas cowboys. Sound familiar?

Wonkette

Her name has been popping up everywhere for the dumb things she's been saying. So in the spirit of tough love it's time for an intervention. Wonkette, you need to aim MUCH HIGHER.

Top 10 Reasons To Vote for Wonkette for Idiotarian of the Year (The Fiskie)

10) She played a central part in the exit poll attempt to undermine the American Presidential election.
9) She’s a Democrat. They desperately need to win a nationwide election.
8) She is a card carrying Inside-The-Beltway MSM media favorite.
7) She’s a full fledged member of the Blogosphere.
6) She’s a shoo-in in the Idiotarian Beauty Pageant.
5) She’ll serve as the inspiration for more blonde jokes to use on her whole alphabet of sisters (Anna Nicole, Britney, Christina …).
4) She’s a Paris Hilton Wannabee.
3) She’s certain to accept a congratulatory drink.
2) Once you’ve got her drinking, you could get lucky.
1) That means she’s the only candidate where the average voter has a chance of seeing a return on his vote!

Chicago Police Marine Unit

It was nice to see old friends on the evening news! The Chicago Police Marine Unit rescued a duck that got stuck in the ice on a pond by Lincoln Park Zoo. A suggestion to Lt. Zuelke & crew. Next time use a toboggan. It will spread the load out more evenly than crawling reducing the possibility of breaking through the ice & it will provide thermal insulation between the diver and the ice so it won’t be SO COLD!

Update 12/23 - Memo to Roe Conn - The reason you rescue a duck is, not only will it avoid incessant pleas for assistance from the PETA crowd, it gives you a chance to run a realistic drill without someone’s life being at risk. If it fails, the only thing lost is a duck’s life. The diver is well protected from the cold and is secured to a lifeline. Be Prepared! The next time it could be a child.

BTW Say Hi to Christina. She really has made progress in controlling her Premature Enunciation!
Update 2 12/27 - While I was away, I saw a segment on the news showing another way to save a frozen duck. They had a fire truck spray water from shore. This melted the ice, freeing the duck without putting any person in danger. And being an aquatic bird, they duck survived the immersion in cold water! Pretty clever!

Monday, December 20, 2004

You're A Good Man Charlie Brown

Remember how Lucy would always snatch the football away just before Charlie Brown tired to kick it? Well the Insurance Institue for Highway Safety does the same thing to automakers. Last night Dateline NBC broadcast a segment on their latest test report. So today the Kia Spectrum is getting pounded in the mainstream press. When you read the report, you’ll note that the government safety standards require the ability to protect the occupants in a 35 mph crash. The IIHS runs their test at 40 mph. At one time, the respective speeds were 30 mph for the NHTSA and 35 mph for IIHS. Are you starting to suspect a bait-and-switch?

The speed is important because it determines the amount of kinetic energy that must be dissipated in the crash. The higher the speed the more energy. In fact, the kinetic energy is proportional to the square of the velocity. So given a fixed vehicle mass, we can scale the energy dissipated versus speed. Squaring the respective speeds we get:

30 x 30 = 900
35 x 35 = 1225
40 x 40 = 1600

Examining the data, we observe that the amount of increased energy absorbed going from 30 to 35 mph is 325 units (1225 – 900). The ratio is 1.36 (1225/900) meaning the percentage increase is 36.1%. Similarly, going from 35 to 40mph is 375 units (1600 – 1225). This ratio is 1.31 (1600/1225). So the actual energy dissipated in the current test is greater in absolute terms than before (375 vs. 325) and starts from a higher initial point (1225 vs. 900). The engineering naif is prone to assume a 5 mph increase is the same whether you are going from 30 to 35 or from 35 to 40. He would be wrong! Note that the increased energy going from 35 to 40 mph is equivalent (375 units) to a 19.4 mph crash!

So Kia meets the government standards as written, but cannot absorb the equivalent of an additional 19.4 mph crash. Are you really surprised? Do you think that the weight saved might have been used to increase fuel economy? Which is more important to you, energy independence or the ability to drive into a wall safely at 40 mph rather than 35 mph? We report, you decide!

P. S. So my advice to Charlie Brown is this, if Lucy keeps pulling the football away, kick that which remains stationary, LUCY. She’ll learn really fast not to mess with a Good Man.

Bummer Dietz - Trojan Horse?

Is Bummer Dietz a Trojan Horse? Something very interesting happened yesterday, Bummer deleted some of my posted comments. Strange behavior from a nominal ally in the quest for justice in the Dan Rathergate affair. It might simply be a fit of pique to be beaten to the punch by an amateur. But let’s consider the Trojan Horse scenario.

Would it make sense for Thornburgh to have someone pretend to be an avenging blogger to get a sense of what they are up to? All we know about him is his nom-de-plume (unlike real bloggers he won’t tell us his real name - could be legal ethics constraints?). He lives in Cyber-California and works for an Enquirer type media outlet (but he hasn’t offered any cash for a good story).

He could be practicing his arguments before a test jury before going into court. Seems plausible. So what has been the subject of discussion? Attorney-client privilege. How an attorney’s work product is protected under law. And he has been trolling for whistleblowers to e-mail him and/or either Thorn burgh (through his law office) or the outside directors as indicated in Viacom’s policy manual. Have we been sending the good hearted into the lion’s den? Maybe, but there is a way to test this theory. Challenge Bummer to put my comments back. After all, they dealt primarily with publicly available documents on file with the SEC that are freely available on the internet. That ensures they are not protected under attorney-client privilege. I’ll grant you, you have to be smart enough to know what to look for, but they are right there. Can you Find Waldo?

The Law is An Ass (TV, Courts & Just The Facts)

Boy was 60 Minutes a hoot! A complete document fisking with the words "forgery" & "fake" thrown around like ping pong balls in a clothes dryer! Of course the "document" was written in stone, literally. Take a look.

Meanwhile Dateline NBC/Court TV had a segment asking “was it an accident or vehicular homicide”. The short answer is that the jury decided homicide and the judge vacated the jury’s decision. Based on the limited testimony available from the broadcast, I’d go with the jury.

The judge decided that if a police car was parked at the scene and witnessed the incident, the driver would not have gotten a ticket for reckless driving. Two comments apply. He would have gotten a ticket for blowing the stop sign! Maybe, he would have gotten a ticket for reckless driving, if judges would enforce the law!

But was the jury’s decision in accordance with the facts? Without having seen the segment, you’re likely to be in over your head, but for those who saw it here goes. The incident took place at the intersection of two two-lane roads at right angles. Designate them North-South and East-West. A woman with a baby stroller was walking in the westbound lane, west of the intersection. The driver was northbound to the intersection and then turned left (westbound). He struck the woman. Her baby survived.

The issue was did he blow the stop sign as a Boy Racer or did he stop with his vision obscured by a bush at the corner plus custom instruments added to the roof post at the side of the windshield. The crux of the issue was over the speed of the car at time of impact. The police established that the maximum speed the car could achieve from a stop at the sign was 12-14 mph. Taking the turn at maximum speed they got a test result of 25-28 mph (I’m working from memory so assume the figures are approximations). The defense’s expert witness testified that the collision took place at 16-23 mph. The defense seemed outraged that anyone could find their client guilty when the speed was not in the 25-28 mph range. Hey lawyer, you ever hear of the brake! Once our Boy Racer got around the bush, he would naturally react to someone in the road by lifting off the throttle and going for the brake. Ergo, a collision speed less than the maximum. Duh! Also note that the impact speed is greater than the maximum speed the car is capable of attaining under full throttle from a dead stop. “Sudden Acceleration” redux.

And look at the apex point and turning radius. Boy Racer uses the south-west curb as his apex. He has already turned 45 degrees to the left when he reaches the apex. By contrast, Boy Good Driver stops at the line. He still has to turn 90 degrees. This ensures that he must end up further north than Boy Racer would. Since the diagram indicates that the stroller impacted the right front fender and the woman hit the windshield, we have evidence that the car was toward the centerline of E-W, whereas it would be fully in the west lane if the car had stopped. The jury got it right. Why not you Judge!

Sunday, December 19, 2004

Personalization Of Social Security

I was reading an interesting article on "privatizing" Social Security (I thought I found it via Instapundit.com but can't link it as I can't find it again - Bummer) which made the point it should be called "personalizing" Social Security. Good Point. A major concern seems to be what about the unsophisticated investor?
So here is my back of the envelope idea. Allow the individual to use the "private contribution" allocation of SSI to prepay his mortgage. He continues to make his regular payments plus this added increment. If he makes $30,000 per year and gets 1% from SSI that's $3oo per year or $25 per month. Would you like an extra $25 per month to put toward your mortgage? Prepaying would also begin to decrease the outstanding principal amount. Net result, quicker payback of the mortgage! What had been a 30 year loan would be paid off much quicker (15 years?). Cool Huh!!
And if the bureaucrats are really worried about the deficit, how about eliminating the mortgage interest deduction for income tax purposes? The bottom of the income taxpayer scale has never gotten the full advantages of this deduction. They use the standard deduction. It's the high income people who garner the bulk of the deduction benefits. Whoa! You mean we get government out of the home building business, increase the fairness of the tax system and provide a secure retirement for workers in one fell swoop? WAAAAY COOOOOL!!!!
To sell the plan, you need to point out that those high income bracket taxpayers have just gotten their rates lowered. We make this permanent. So they lose the deduction, but get lower rates. Roughly a wash. They just got a temporary bonus of lower rates plus the deduction during the recession to enable the economy to recover faster. Now they would be right back where they were pre-recession. Except we'd fixed Social Security!

More Good news on Murder Rate

Chicago's murder rate has continued to decline. Today's Chicago Tribune provides more detail in this article http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/chi-0412190514dec19,1,282545.story?coll=chi-news-hed. Now if we could only instill some Protestant Work Ethic and education in our prison population, maybe when they get out they'll have the skills and the desire to go straight.

Saddam's Crimes Against Humanity

Let's not make this too complicated. Saddam's crimes against humanity were his incessant conversion of schools into ammo dumps. Each instance constitutes a separate violation of the Geneva Conventions. He committed thousands of violations.

The remedy is to fill those schools with children, books, teddy bears and songs (e.g. Twinkle Twinkle Little Star).

P.S. Greetings from the Pajamahadeen. Merry Christmas!

P.P.S. Watch Fox News Sunday!

Cold Case - CBS Update

Be sure to stop by Scylla & Charydis for more debate on how the Thornburgh Report will develop. Will they clam up (the corporate equivalent of taking the Fifth)? Will the prosecutors jump in if they don't release a report? How do Oxley-Sarbanes and RICO fit into the picture?

http://scyllacharybdis.blogspot.com/2004/12/thornburgh-to-withhold-cbs-report-to.html#comments

is the latest. Be sure to check it out!!!

Saturday, December 18, 2004

What Do You Care...

The ad hominem attack in the comments to the previous post led me to think about the three religions most directly involved in the Mideast. They all recognize Abraham; so much so that Judaism, Christianity & Islam are considered to be Abrahamic religions. So why is there such strife? Part of it is certainly due to the internecine nature of the conflicts. The number of Christians is comparatively small, so they remain mainly on the sidelines. The bulk of the contentions are Jew vs. Muslim. Yet both are Semitic races.

I’d like to share excerpts from the book, What Do You Care What Other People Think? By Richard Feynman. You might remember him as the commissioner on the Challenger panel who demonstrated the lack of resilience in the O-ring seals when they are cold by dipping one into ice water and testing it with a C-clamp. Science education at its best! He went to visit another ancient civilization, Greece, and had these observations (pages 94-96):

“Yesterday morning I went to the archeological museum…it was slightly boring because we have seen so much of that stuff before. Except for one thing: among all those art objects there was one thing so entirely different that it is nearly impossible. It was recovered from the sea in 1900 and is some kind of machine with gear trains, very much like the inside of a modern wind-up alarm clock. The teeth are very regular and many wheels are fitted close together. There are graduated circles and Greek inscriptions. I wonder if it is some kind of fake. There was an article on it in the Scientific American in 1959.”

“It appears the Greeks take their past very seriously. They study ancient Greek archeology in their elementary schools for 6 years, having to take 10 hours of that subject every week. It is a kind of ancestor worship, for they emphasize always how wonderful the ancient Greeks were - and wonderful indeed they were. When you encourage them by saying, “Yes, and look how modern man has advanced beyond the ancient Greeks” - Thinking of the experimental science, the development of mathematics, the art of the Renaissance, the great depth and understanding of the relative shallowness of Greek philosophy, etc. etc. - they reply, “What do you mean? What was wrong with the ancient Greeks?” They continually put their age down and the old age up, until to point out the wonders of the present seems to them to be an unjustified lack of appreciation for the past.”
"They were very upset when I said that the development of greatest importance to mathematics in Europe was the discovery by Tartaglia that you can solve a cubic equation: although it is very little use in itself, the discovery must have been psychologically wonderful because it showed that a modern man could do something no ancient Greek could do. It therefore helped in the Renaissance, which was the freeing of man from the intimidation of the ancients. What Greeks are learning in school is to be intimidated into thinking they have fallen so far below their super ancestors."

So where does this take me? A rumination. Was it a mistake to offer a Solomonic choice to the Jews and Palestinians over Jerusalem? Split the baby. The problem is, the baby could still muddle through after it was split. We did not focus their attention enough. So here is a modified choice, What do you want?
a) Share the running of the city among you all evenly.
b) Have the power given to those who have shown more ability to get along with their neighbors, the UN Security Council.
I suspect that after half a century of UN intervention that neither side shares the delusions of the American Left about the blue helmets! Puts a whole different perspective on the issue, doesn’t it? And it is truer to the original choice offered by King Solomon.

Friday, December 17, 2004

Choir of Angels

“Music hath charms to soothe the savage breast” - William Congreve

I have a dream which intertwines various vignettes of recent days. What if we combine the 4th ID and its statue with Iraqi children holding books and teddy bears to sing a hymn taught to them by American GIs. It goes like this:

Jesus loves me this I know.
For the Bible tells me so.
Little ones to Him belong.
They are weak but He is strong.
Yes, Jesus loves me.
Yes, Jesus loves me.
Yes, Jesus loves me.
The Bible tells me so.

Jesus loves me. He who died.
Heaven’s Gate to open wide.
He will wash away my sins.
Let His little child come in.
Yes, Jesus loves me.
Yes, Jesus loves me.
Yes, Jesus loves me.
The Bible tells me so.


Jesus loves me. He will stay
Close beside me all the way
He’s prepared a home for me.
And someday His face I’ll see.
Yes, Jesus loves me.
Yes, Jesus loves me.
Yes, Jesus loves me.
The Bible tells me so.
The Bible tells me so.

Thursday, December 16, 2004

Weasel Season

With his elevation to the number two man in the Senate Democratic Caucus, Dick Durbin has become increasing visible. He is really creating an impression of being a junior grade Demagogic Democrat (Daschle Lite). Last Monday he was at O’Hare boasting of the federal security money being allocated to upgrade the bomb screening process. Like he had any influence even on the margin with a Republican Senate, House & President! What a windbag. Mr. Purveyor of Pork. He strikes me as a Weasel. Well, this morning there are hints it’s Weasel Season!

Not Too Hard Was It?

The Chicago City Council unanimously passed the new sprinkler ordinance. Existing commercial buildings will have to install sprinklers unless they are landmark buildings and make other improvements. Residential buildings are not required to install sprinklers, but also need to make life safety improvements. Not too hard to accomplish, was it? The hard work is still ahead. Get going on an advisory technical council to work with the Fire Department in the LaSalle Bank investigation.

Senior R.I.P.

While I was in the departure lounge at Midway just before Thanksgiving I got the call that Richard Cwik had passed away. I’ve been so busy, I have been remiss in my obligations. I trust this will atone. One of the Greatest Generation, he served on an escort carrier in the Pacific. Known to us as Senior, he left the world a better place. Godspeed.

Free Betty!

The news from the latest testing mandated by No Child Left Behind is delightful. The Chicago Public Schools have certainly come a long way from the day that Education Secretary Bill Bennett described them as the worst in the country. Congratulations! And stay the course on converting Senn High School into an U. S. Naval Academy. Bravo Zulu.

If I got the figures from the news broadcast right, the surprise performer is an elementary school in Cicero. It is getting results comparable to schools with twice their per pupil spending of only $3,709 each. Cicero is a Red State town surrounded by blue. Once home to Eastern European immigrants who formed the blue collar backbone of Western Electric’s Hawthorne Works, Cicero is now over 90% Hispanic. Yet the Bohemians & Lithuanians would recognize the emphasis on a good education at bargain basement prices. It fits right in with the concept of Bohemian Wall Street (Cermak Road) where, on Houby Day, you could go to the bank and get a “Czech book” of ten neatly bound $1 bills! So how did they make this transition? The answer, in part, is an individual reviled by the liberal media who they got sent to the federal pen. Her name is Betty Loren-Maltese. When two little Hispanic boys got in gang crossfire, she unleashed the police to end the violence. She established gang-free zones and chased the hookers on Cicero Avenue. She’s one tough cookie who was relentlessly ridiculed for her makeup (ala Katherine Harris). She’s done the time. It’s time to free Betty!

Tuesday, December 14, 2004

The Questing Cat

Revised 12/15
I found another great post by The Questing Cat today. He was the inspiration for my previous post Post Combat Life Savers (P-CLS) . In it he mulls the reason we’re in Iraq. Here is my comment to him.

Did you hear about the statue commissioned by the 4th ID from an Iraqi sculptor for display back home at Ft. Hood? It had a kneeling GI with bowed head before an inverted rifle, helmet and a pair of boots. Behind him, was a small girl with her hand on his shoulder. If the Iraqis want to honor those who sacrificed for their freedom, they should reproduce this statue but ensure that the girl holds a book in her other hand. Then the children of Iraq will show they understand. And they can devote the 25th of December, birthday of the Muslim prophet Jesus, to contemplation, remembrance and study. And I bet that would be enough. You and your comrades are doing God's work. Be safe and Godspeed!

Here is a link to the Wall Street Journal Article.
We do it because we don't want our children to have to suffer from the same things we did in the future. We do it because Jesus taught us to let the children come to Him. We do it because it is the right thing to do, as we were taught in

Mathew 18:

At that time the disciples came to Jesus, saying, “Who is the greatest in the kingdom of heaven?” And calling to him a child, he put him in the midst of them, and said, “Truly, I say to you, unless you turn and become like children, you will never enter the kingdom of heaven. Whoever humbles himself like this child, he is the greatest in the kingdom of heaven.

Whoever receives one such child in my name receives me; but whoever causes one of these little ones who believe in me to sin, it would be better for him to have a great millstone fastened round his neck and to be drowned in the depth of the sea.
Update 12/16 - The children of Iraq are quick studies.

John Merrow on PBS

Have you ever seen the Merrow Report segments on the News Hour with Jim Lehrer? They had one last night about how the federal No Child Left Behind Act forces schools to give military recruiters equal access to high school students as college recruiters. Did I hear somewhere that the U S Armed Forces are actually the biggest college level educational organization in the world? That didn't seem to be the tenor of the report. Why the host seemed a bit surprised that there was forced equal treatment for an organization that might send its recruits to Iraq! They seemed shocked, shocked. Do you bring some special insight to the question John Merrow? What did you do in the (Vietnam) War John Merrow?

A little birdie told me that you got a job as a teacher right out of Dartmouth (employment deferment), then soon got married to a rich girl (the birdie says you drove away on your honeymoon in a Rolls - that's a marriage deferment). Nowhere do I see any military service when you were of prime draft age during the height of Lyndon Johnson's draft!

And the birdie says that while you were teaching those high school students, you did a big section on anti-war poetry. You know, Where have All the Flowers Gone? And your students held you in such high regard that one day they brought a coffin to class and put a kid inside. When you arrived, he popped up waving an American flag reading Elizabeth Browning. And there are witnesses. One of those students, Mary LeS. went on to be a big time assistant to the likes of Lucas and Spielberg in Hollywood! Maybe she can help them produce a movie, Where Have all the Flower Children Gone? (Seems at least one went to PBS!)

Enquiring minds want to know! Hint http://www.pbs.org/merrow/about/Merrow_bio.pdf

Cold Case - 60 Minutes & Sudden Acceleration

Update on Rathergate - Bummer Dietz and I have a play by play account of recent developments on his blog. Be sure to check there for updates. However, in the spirit of Chicago’s own favorite color announcer, Steve Stone, I’ll do something here “for all you little leaguers out there”. If “sudden acceleration” is a hoax, what should you do if you find your car accelerating unexpectedly? Keep these two thoughts in mind.

Back in kindergarten you learned that if you turned something on and it did something crazy you should turn it back off. In a factory you’d hit the stop button. Do exactly the same in your car, turn off the key. Don’t just take my word, try it. Find a stretch of road with no other traffic and while driving along turn off the key. The car will coast to a stop. You’ll find the brakes still work (though you should not pump them). Simple!

The other thing you need to know is that your brakes are much stronger than the engine and are applied at all four wheels, where the engine generally drives only two wheels. As Car & Driver magazine demonstrated by actual testing, if you drive along at full throttle up to speed (say 55 mph) and then apply the brakes the car will stop. So if you find yourself in a circumstance where the car is accelerating while you’re sure your foot is on the brake, lift your foot off the brake pedal. It cannot do any harm if you really are on the brake, as you have suffered a catastrophic loss of braking power. The only chance to restore that power is to pump the brakes. But almost certainly you’ve got your foot on the gas. As you lift off the pedal, the car will slow. This is confirmation of driver error. Move your foot onto the brake pedal. Once again, its simple.
P.S. We'll miss you Steve. Godspeed!

Update 2- Anybody out there starting to think that even Yoda is lining up against CBS? It took exactly 8 hours and 12 minutes for a civilian employee of the Chicago Police Department to crash into City Hall to demonstrate my point! Here is a quote taken from the Chicago Sun-Times story

“Bike messenger Jeremy Dutcher said he saw the car turn north off Washington onto La Salle.

"I saw his tires spin," Dutcher said. "I said, 'Whoa.' He hit the gas instead of the brakes, or something. He just kept going and slammed into the wall. I thought, 'It's a good thing I didn't take the sidewalk today.' "

The police car struck two light posts before hitting the building. Dutcher said it just missed several pedestrians on the sidewalk.”
Update 3 - Whoops, I should explain the Yoda crack. In his narration of Out of Control Ed Bradley said the Audi has a "dark side". Therefore it must be in league with Darth Vader! But the Force is with us!

Monday, December 13, 2004

Reckless Disregard for the Truth

Update on Dan Rathergate - Just as with the charges of the Swift Vets, the mainstream media has chosen to ignore the very specific charges made by bloggers against CBS/Viacom, Dan Rather & Mary Mapes. Seemingly, the media hope is to be able to pass their actions off as a series of mistakes (or to quote the Clinton Administration refrain “mistakes were made“). But I have seen the destruction that can take place if we allow CBS to get away with a fraudulent report. One of my first submissions to the American Thinker (it wasn’t published due to the inability of adding video with our limited server capabilities) was about a 60 Minutes report called “Out of Control”. It launched the “sudden acceleration” charge against the Audi 5000. The original broadcast took place on November 23, 1986. The segment was brilliantly destroyed by the editors of Car and Driver magazine in their April 1987 edition. At that time, the masthead said “Car & Driver, ISBN 0008-6002, is published monthly at 3807 Wilshire Blvd., Los Angeles, California 90010, by CBS Magazines”. Despite Audi‘s efforts at a defense and this compelling evidence that CBS should have known their report was false, 60 Minutes was brazen enough to re-broadcast this report, essentially unchanged, on September, 13, 1987. In my view that meets the legal standard of being “reckless” as CBS should have known, from their own in-house experts, that the report was false. This is important, as the reason false media reports don’t result in libel judgments is that the legal bar has been set so high by defining libel as “reckless disregard for the truth”. It is analogous to the difference between a civil wrong, a tort, and a crime. To find one guilty of a crime it is necessary to prove a criminal intent, a mens rea. The most well known example of not being able to prove a crime but successfully litigating a tort is the O. J. Simpson case. This might shock you, but I believe that the original 60 Minutes broadcast alone should have been enough to enable Audi to win a libel judgment against CBS. If I could add video to this blog, I would make the case for you to see! But they got off scot-free. To make things much worse, our public perception of the problem has prevented us from addressing the root cause of these incidents which is driver error. Without fixing the problem, the accidents continue to occur and innocent victims continue die to protect CBS’ reputation. And in a delicious bit of irony, they save staged a “hidden recall” of this defective product by not making it available for purchase on tape. But I have the tape of the original broadcast. Talk about hypocrisy!

Well now the bloggers have undertaken to pursue a through, independent review of the Rathergate memos. Their outrage has a different immediate cause, politics. But they have been extremely motivated in their “fisking” of CBS. If you read the mainstream media (MSM) you will not have seen the depth of this investigation. You might still believe the “fake, but accurate” nonsense of CBS. So once again, the challenge is to see if the blogosphere can meet the higher standards of the criminal law, not just the civil law. The physical evidence is compelling. Can we find the mens rea? It’s time to expose you to the developing criminal case against CBS to see if there is more evidence to support our detective work. We need the help of the public, if we are to fight and win against such a large corporation with such a dominant voice in the public arena. I still want to stop the deaths on the roadways. My fellow bloggers are simply fed up with unrestrained media bias. Obviously, we cannot bring charges against CBS, but we can make a complaint to the relevant legal authorities and ask them to seek indictments. You can see the developing criminal case at Scylla&Charybdis. Do your part, help us “fisk” our own work.

Just as in my post Blue Angel Magic, I have held off on the easy answers to force you to engage your mind, I am not totally spilling the beans. I want you to THINK! So your homework is to study, in depth, the Scylla website. To ensure you study hard, I will add this detail to a comment I posted there.

Karnak says “when you open the envelope the first thing you will find a letter with this heading.
At the top is a logo. It consists of a central star, two enveloping olive branches, a double circle around them, the words “STATE OF TEXAS” and finally an outer concentric circle. The wording is as follows:
TEXAS MILITARY FORCES, JOINT FORCES HEADQUARTERS
ADJUTANT GENERAL’S DEPARTMENT
Post Office Box 5218, Austin, Texas 78763-5218
512-782-5001”

And here is the link to General Hodges' statements. Have fun, this is better than CSI!

Sunday, December 12, 2004

Sprinkler Update - Daley versus Stroger

Saw Mayor Daley and Cook County Board Chairman John Stroger on the TV news discussing the committee decision to not require sprinklers in high-rise residential buildings built before 1975. Mayor Daley defending the decision. Chairman Stroger inclining toward requiring sprinklers. Once again Mayor Daley has separated himself from the Democratic Party, which is under the sway of the trial lawyers. But he is searching for a way to score a clear cut win against the touchy-feely inclinations of a public not required to pay for the solution. He suggested that someone from a great technical institution such as MIT might invent a better solution.
No need for that Mayor Daley. What is needed is faith in the individual. Such an individual, who accepts personal responsibility for his own safety, will find the tool needed has already been invented. It is called a fire extinguisher. If a fire breaks out, fight it yourself. Fires killed quickly are best. But if that is not practical; close the door, call 911, alert the neighbors and evacuate. You should be able to accomplish most of this before the first fire truck arrives. And you’ve made the job of the firefighters easier. Keep your wits and do your part. Total cost to each homeowner for two fire extinguishers will be less than $20. That’s affordable.

Friday, December 10, 2004

Bill Cosby

This excerpt appeared today on the Newsmax site in a post describing Bill Cosby‘s speech given at a San Francisco school.

“As a result of that speech, the Chronicle wrote, San Francisco school superintendent Arlene Ackerman wrote a letter to Cosby inviting him to visit one of her three new "Dream Schools," low-performing public schools that have been overhauled to include long school days, Saturday school, mandatory student uniforms, a more rigorous curriculum and required contracts signed by parents pledging to be involved in their children's education. Ackerman, the San Francisco's first black superintendent of schools, told the Chronicle she was glad Cosby had aired his frustrations, even if they were not politically correct.

"We haven't figured out a way to talk about it as African-Americans. ... At least now we're talking about it," she said. "The truth is, many of the things he said are reality for those of us who work in urban public schools."

Well, if they need some help in figuring out how to talk about it I’d recommend

Initiative Creates Opportunity By Master Chief William R. Wells II, U.S. Coast Guard (Retired) Though occupations are scarce for African Americans when Alex Haley joins the Coast Guard, the author of Roots creates his own opportunities.
Which appeared in Naval History Magazine July/August 1999 Volume 13 Number 4 available at http://www.usni.org/navalhistory/nh1999toc.htm

Nominating Committee

Today the city building committee evidently approved the basic Bernie Stone plan to retrofit commercial buildings with sprinklers, but not require them for residences. So the next question is can we create a nominating committee for the investigative panel. I’d approach these people to either serve or suggest nominees. Number one would be the Illinois State Fire Marshal. We know Stephen O’Malley of Gage-Babcock & Associates has an interest because of his op-ed. Everyone probably already knows Underwriters Laboratories. An interesting company (and one with which I used to do business) is Chemetron Fire Systems. If anyone is still there from the seventies, it would be quite interesting to have his comments on the 111 E. Wacker fire that killed Nancy Clay. Chemetron occupied that space immediately before they moved out and Ms. Clay’s employer moved in. They would be intimately familiar with the layout of the space. Another major player is Reliable Fire Equipment. A side benefit for the conspiracy buffs is that all of these entities are located outside Chicago. To wit, Springfield, Oak Brook, Northbrook, Matteson & Alsip; so they would also serve a mutual aid function of spreading the knowledge outward as well as inward. They comprise a mix of government, engineering, independent testing laboratory, manufacturing and distribution/installation. A representative slice of the stakeholders.

I'd also suggest enlisting the aid of former commissioner Joyce, who got beat up in the press, but mainly because he was protecting his men & department. He would seem to be a stalwart advocate for the firefighters on the front line. And he certainly has demonstrated the personal courage and experience to be a contributor.

We'll see if anybody reads my blog if some of these names start to circulate in public circles!

Blue Angel Magic

Today’s edition of the Wall Street Journal has an interesting article on science education in Science Journal by Sharon Begley (by subscription only). Here is the text of a letter I emailed her.

Of course scientific education in America is pitiful. But the choice may not be between “discovery learning” and “direct instruction”. More likely the solution will be a combination of “Aha! moment discovery” and interactive direct instruction. This is a much more sophisticated technique. Let‘s demonstrate the “Aha Moment” by an example. What is needed is to teach on a foundation of the knowledge the child has accrued in daily life. Then by challenging their ideas, impressions and misconceptions (the interactive part) guide them (the direct instruction part) to a greater understanding of the science.

Here in Chicago we have the annual Air & Water Show. It is a perennial crowd favorite that climaxes with a performance by either the Navy Blue Angels or the Air Force Thunderbirds. It’s lots of fun and gets one million spectators. Virtually every kid has seen the show. That is the only life experience they need.

Now the object is to teach them about how an airplane can fly despite being heavier than air. This is a common source of wonderment. So here is the pop quiz for science teachers everywhere. How do they fly upside down? We’ve all seen them do it. The conventional wisdom is that the bottom of the wing is flat, the top curved so the airflow has a longer distance to go in the same time. This increased velocity is derived by converting the static pressure above the wing into dynamic pressure (the Bernoulli effect). The different static pressures above and below the wing create a differential pressure that results in lift. Ergo the plane can fly. Sound familiar? Well don’t try that nonsense on my grade school pram sailors! They’ll point out that when the plane is inverted the curved side of the wing is down. By your logic, the inverted “lift” and gravity should combine to force the plane down into the lake. But not those Blue Angels & Thunderbirds! How cool they must be to have this magic at their disposal. Aha, teach. Gotcha!
You don’t think I’m going to spoil the magic by giving you the answer do you? At least not before you’ve tried to figure it out. Turn in your homework tomorrow.

Thursday, December 09, 2004

Sprinkler Ordinances

The Chicago City Council is going to debate mandatory installation of sprinklers. There seems to be general agreement to revise the code to start a retrofit of commercial buildings built before the adoption of mandatory sprinklers in 1975, up to the revised code over a period of years. This seems sensible and is relatively non-controversial. The debate focuses on residential buildings. Building Committee chairman, Bernie Stone, has been reluctant to force mandatory installation of sprinklers in residential buildings. His proposal stiffens life safety codes. Indications are Mayor Daley is leaning this way also. The real world confronts governmental paternalism. Alderman Burke is the principal force for universal installation of sprinklers.

I see philosophic and technical issues that bear on these questions. The net result is I’m leaning toward a variation on the Stone theme. Let’s start with the philosophic side. I’m an Illinois Republican in the Lincoln mode (Illinois is The Land of Lincoln). He is arguably most famous for the words “…government of the people, by the people and for the people…”. The people are in charge and the government officials serve them. This is not conducive to a top down command authority imposing burdens against the wishes of the governed. I’d tread very carefully imposing requirements on people in their homes. Alderman Burke is well intentioned, but may be overstepping his bounds. He apparently lives in a very large home. Has he installed sprinklers in it? If not, his leadership is questionable. There are also very practical differences in the challenges faced fighting fires in small, individual spaces and the more common large spaces seen in commercial spaces. It would make sense to have more stringent codes for commercial properties where the public is present with no piece of the ownership of the property. If residents don’t want to spend huge sums of money to protect their own lives, who gives us authority to force them? Aldermen are public officials and therefore could reasonably be seen to have a duty to public spaces.

But just as my “Birkett Solution” shown below (see December 3) aims at zero murder victims, we should adopt a “Stone Solution” to aim at zero fire deaths. I generally agree with the op-ed in the Thursday Sun-Times that we should have another public-private investigation to work on improvement. What the CFD needs to recognize it that their attitude toward the public is elitist. It may come with the job, but the public performed pretty well in this fire and should be trusted to continue to learn with appropriate guidance. Part of developing a better attitude would be to have outside civilian input, Community Fire Fighting if you will. This will team with the success of community policing. We aren’t turning the process over to the great unwashed, we’re looking for better ideas in our quest for zero defects. So while I have not seen the competing ordinances and cannot in good conscience , campaign for either here is a notional idea of how I’d proceed.

I'd change the code for commercial buildings to install sprinklers. I’d probably go along with the changes to the life safety code. But I’d do something more. I’d fund a citizen’s advisory board of outsiders with non-voting participation by the CFD. And I’d have them work on recommendations, large or small, on how the public can make incremental improvements in the safety of their buildings. This follows the model of developing “Recommended Practices” before developing “Standards”. The reality is that codification means ossification. The code will always lag the leading edge of technology. There needs to be a way to progressively advance proven experience with advanced technology into the mandatory code. This is a way to accomplish just that. If Chicago funds such a panel with the technical resources at hand, it is likely to advance to the leading edge of fire safety technology. And those innovations are likely to be built in Chicago. That means the creation of new jobs and industries. Put the practical experience of Chicago’s firefighters at the hand of the innovators and entrepreneurs. Then watch good things happen!

Catch Me If You Can - 8:42 PM 12/6/04

Updating the LaSalle Bank Fire story

My first post was at 8:42 PM on 12/6

The fire at 135 S. LaSalle has just passed the two hour mark and the fire dept has just started to spray water toward the blown out windows on the 29th floor. That is problematic as the typical fire floor rating is only two hours. This calls into question the whole strategy of having civilians above the fire stay where they are. I have much more to add, but am going back to the coverage for now.

Here are updates I’ve submitted to my editor at The American Thinker. One of the frustrations of being a blogger is that both my editor and I have day jobs so staying current is very hard. So for those interested in matching bloggers vs. the MSM on a live story here is the history of my submissions with times to compare with the published reports of full time reporters. Thomas will eventually get it posted, but for my few fans, this is your chance to see it first.

Here is the original as of 6:33 AM CST on 12/7

There was a fire in the LaSalle Bank Building @ 135 S. LaSalle in Chicago last night. There were no fatalities, but 25 people (mostly firefighters) were hospitalized. Here are some first impressions based on observation of the TV coverage.
1) Once again we are reminded of the power of the forces of nature. The Chicago Fire Department turned out over one-third of its total manpower to fight the blaze.
2) After the first two hours, the total hospitalizations were only eight of which two were firefighters. The balance were presumably from the effects of entering the fire floors to suppress the fire. The courage of these firefighters is obvious.
3) The strategies adopted by the CFD in the wake of the Cook County Administration Building fire in October 2003 likely need re-evaluation.
Background Their were six civilian deaths in the Cook County building fire. These civilians entered stairways to exit the building. The doors of the stairways were locked. The fatalities occurred in the stairway used by the CFD to enter the fire floor to suppress the fire. The victims were found several floors above the fire. There were many issues raised and subsequent changes made by both the CFD and the Chicago City Council. There were two separate investigation, the Mikva Commission and the Witt Commission.
The first corrective action taken was a revision to the building ordinances requiring that stairway doors be electrically controlled so that the CFD could unlock the doors. This would allow anyone in the stairway to seek refuge on a higher floor. When this building was designed, the stairways were not locked. It also did not have sprinklers. Locking the stairways was a subsequent response to improve security in the wake of a rash of rapes in Loop buildings (the law of unintended consequences). The new recommendation was to have civilians in floors above the fire stay where they were and have the CFD organize search and evacuation as their first priority. The thought was to avoid forcing entry onto the fire floor until evacuations had succeeded. And there are two competing sprinkler ordinances on the agenda for the next council meeting.
The actual fire suppression occurred with water being projected upward from snorkels extended up from the street to a level a few floors below the fire. This diminished the intensity of the fire enough so that the attack from the stairway was effective.
Timeline The first alarm was received about 6:30 PM though witnesses stated they started smelling smoke as early as 6 to 6:15 PM. One witness indicated seeing smoke from above the dropped ceiling (a light fixture is the suspected source in the County fire). If true, it indicates that fires in the ceiling plenum can build a lot of headway before becoming visible to occupants. Lesson - At the first hint of smoke call in the alarm and get off that floor! A corollary is that sprinklers or smoke detectors do not work well with fires above the ceiling. These hidden fires can be deadly. The fire was located on the 29th floor, well above the reach of the snorkels. The CFD seemed to be executing their new strategy to perfection. There was no externally visible effort at suppression for roughly two hours. At that time the CFD was able to get hoses to the roofs of two ells projecting from the building face at the 26th floor. Visible reduction of the flames ensued. It looked like a successful effort. But at about three hours into the incident, the fire spread to the 30th floor, which was quickly a raging inferno. It took firefighters about five hours to extinguish all visible flames. It was quite a battle.
Observations
1) We still don’t have a way to quickly get control over these fires from inside the building. The CFD was fortunate in both fires to be able to externally apply water from outside the building. That won’t always be the case.
2) Watching these fires is boring TV to action film fans. You want to see the brave firemen swoop in with their hoses and knock down the fire. We want to cheer them on! But the plain reality is there is only so much water that can be pumped so high into the sky. The number of hoses available is less than the need. Viewers probably were asking themselves why it took so long to extinguish the last bits of flame. The likely reason is there just wasn’t enough water available. So the CFD attacked in stages and established forward operating bases (FOB) just like our soldiers in Iraq.
3) We need to develop better tools to help these brave men. Anyone with ideas should send them in. Send them to the CFD or the National Institute of Standards and Technology World Trade Center Investigation Team which is conducting extensive research into high rise fires. Or if you’re shy, e-mail them to me at machiasprivateer@hotmail.com. Maybe we can start a discussion group. I’ve been mulling an idea to mix liquid carbon dioxide with the water as its pumped into the standpipe. Then you’d have two-phase flow at the fire, liquid water which would flash to steam and accumulate at the ceiling (the molecular weight of water is <> air). This would hopefully cut off the flow of air to the fire and snuff it out.

Here is the updated version as of 3:41 AM CST on 12/8
There was a fire in the LaSalle Bank Building @ 135 S. LaSalle in Chicago Monday night. There were no fatalities, but 37 people (23 of them firefighters) were hospitalized. Here are some first impressions based only on observation of the TV coverage.
1) Once again we are reminded of the power of the forces of nature. The Chicago Fire Department turned out over one-third of its total manpower to fight the blaze.
2) After the first two hours, the total hospitalizations were only eight of which two were firefighters. That means roughly twenty-one firefighters were injured by the effects of entering the fire floors to suppress the fire after the successful evacuation of civilians. The new strategy of “defense in place” was effective in reducing civilian casualties. The courage of the firefighters when they then went on offense is obvious.
3) The strategies adopted by the CFD in the wake of the October 17, 2003 Cook County Administration Building fire need further re-evaluation, based on this new experience. This after action report should be done with external support.
Background of the County Building Fire There were six civilian deaths in the County building fire. These civilians entered stairways from floors well above the fire to exit the building. The doors of these stairways were locked. The fatalities occurred in the stairway used by the CFD to enter the fire floor to suppress the fire. The victims were found several floors above the fire. Smoke rising up the stairwell was the cause of death. There were many issues raised and changes were instituted by both the CFD and the Chicago City Council. There were two separate independent investigations, the Mikva Commission and the Witt Commission.
The first corrective action taken was a revision to the building ordinances requiring that stairway doors be electrically controlled so that the CFD could unlock the doors. This would allow anyone in the stairway to seek refuge on a higher floor if he encountered smoke on his way out of the building. When the building had been designed, the stairways were not locked and it had no sprinklers. The decision to lock the stairways was a response to improve security in the wake of a rash of rapes in Loop buildings (plaintiffs attorneys take note- the law of unintended consequences). The new recommendation was to have civilians on floors above the fire gather in groups, call for rescue and stay where they were. The CFD would implement search and evacuation as their first priority while simultaneously adopted a “defend in place“ strategy of containing the fire. The thought was to avoid forcing entry onto the fire floor until evacuations had succeeded. Another effort was the adoption of revised sprinkler ordinances. There are two competing sprinkler ordinances on the agenda for the next council meeting.
The actual fire suppression occurred with water being projected upward from snorkels extended up from street level to about 3 floors below the fire. This stream of outside water diminished the intensity of the fire enough so that the attack from the stairway was effective.
Timeline of the LaSalle Bank Fire The first alarm was received about 6:30 PM, though some witnesses stated they started smelling smoke as early as 6 to 6:15 PM. One witness indicated seeing smoke from above the dropped ceiling (a light fixture is the suspected source in the County fire). If true, it indicates that fires in the ceiling plenum can build a lot of headway before becoming visible to occupants. Lesson - At the first hint of smoke, call in the alarm and get off that floor! A corollary is that sprinklers or smoke detectors do not work well with fires above the ceiling. These hidden fires can be deadly.
The fire was located on the 29th floor, well above the reach of the snorkels. The CFD seemed to be executing their new strategy to perfection. There was no externally visible effort at suppression for roughly two hours. At that time the CFD was able to get hoses to the roofs of two ells projecting from the building face at the 26th floor. Visible reduction of the flames ensued. It looked like a successful effort. But at about three hours into the incident, the fire spread to the 30th floor, which was quickly a raging inferno. Time had run out on the fire rating of the 30th floor! It took firefighters about five hours to extinguish all visible flames and more time to cool down the remains. It was quite a battle.
Observations
1) We still don’t have a way to quickly get control over these fires from inside the building. The CFD was fortunate in both fires to be able to externally apply water from outside the building. That won’t always be the case.
2) Watching these fires is boring TV to action film fans. You want to see the brave firemen swoop in with their hoses and knock down the fire. We want to cheer them on! But the plain reality is there is only so much water that can be pumped so high into the sky. The number of hoses available is less than the need. Viewers probably were asking themselves why it took so long to extinguish the last bits of flame. The likely reason is there just wasn’t enough water available. So the CFD attacked in stages and established forward operating bases (FOB) just like our soldiers in Iraq.
3) We need to develop better tools to help these brave men and women. Anyone with ideas should send them in. Send them to the CFD or the National Institute of Standards and Technology World Trade Center Investigation Team which is conducting extensive research into high rise fires. Or if you’re shy, e-mail them to me at machiasprivateer@hotmail.com. Maybe we can start a discussion group.
I’ve been mulling an idea to fight such fires with seltzer water. You mix liquid carbon dioxide with the water as its pumped into the standpipe. Then you’d have two-phase flow at the fire, a superposition of a water sprinkler system with a dry ice maker. The liquid water which would flash to steam and accumulate at the ceiling (the molecular weight of water is <> air). This would hopefully cut off the flow of air to the fire and snuff it out.
One common comment by the broadcasters was “I’m not an expert but…”. The only person worthy of this statement was a Mr. Lia of the fire sprinkler association. He told us that he used to be a firefighter. And he knows this is the bleeding edge of fire suppression. Out here there are no experts! There are many smart people bringing knowledge, experience and good will to the effort, but nobody has all the answers. This is no place for lawyers! Their first thought would be to say Mr. Lia has a “conflict of interest” because he markets sprinklers. Maybe the public should tell the plaintiff bar that they prefer to advance the state of the art and not concentrate on finding scapegoats! And people with conflicts of interest are just the sort to solve what engineers would call a bleeding edge “multi-disciplinary task“.

Addendum 5:14PM on 12/8
Since I sent the Update to you, I've had some more back-of-the-envelope ideas. If you want to append them to the article here they are:
1) Install manometers on the outside of the doors in pressurized stairways. This would allow the civilians to determine if the pressurization system is working before opening the door. (Incidentally, this is an inexpensive, passive, fail-safe system.) They'd be instructed not to enter an unpressurized stairwell, as it might be filled with smoke. During a staged evacuation, the manometer will bounce up and down as other doors open. Wait until it's up and then go. That way the stairwell never gets to a vacuum state and it resists smoke entry. You want to avoid having lots of doors open at once and drop the pressure. So the Fire Department announces "evacuate floors 28 to 30 now!" They wait a moment, then do the next few floors etc. That gives the civilians a chance to assist in their own evacuation. Then you could increase the flow of people down the stairs by sending them in staged packets as a means of flow control. Say designating floors that are a multiple of 5, marked with an "F" on the doors. Then the fast guys fill the space between packets and the slow guys don't get overrun from above. The intent is do avoid the clumping that makes rush hour traffic so maddening and slow.
2) Since the doors are now electrically locked, we could devise an "occupied" light system similar to that on airliners. The fire department could first clear the stairwell and then signal it is occupied as they force entry on the fire floor. This would allow them to attack the fire while continuing evacuation through the other stairwell(s). This would let them get at the fire earlier than if they simply wait until the whole building is evacuated.

Latest Press Accounts 4:46 AM on 12/9
Here are the latest Chicago Tribune reports that ratify my article
http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/chi-0412080341dec08,0,1913992.story?coll=chi-newslocal-hed
http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/chi-0412080342dec08,0,2307209.story?coll=chi-newslocal-hed

Wednesday, December 08, 2004

Role Models

Today would have been my father’s birthday. With all the talk of role models in society, he and my mother were mine. I hope they would be proud of me. In my effort to emulate my father’s contributions to the world through his role as an engineer, I have asked Thomas Lifson of the American Thinker to become its technology correspondent. He has given the go ahead. Here is my first "engineering for amateurs" article, which I titled Pharmaceutical Manufacturing 101 and Thomas re-titled Reinventing the Wheel. We have another article on the LaSalle Bank Fire undergoing editing by e-mail. I expect he’ll post it soon. I’ve already had multiple additional thoughts, but need to let him get the original up first for them to make sense.

Monday, December 06, 2004

High Rise Fires

The fire at 135 S. LaSalle has just passed the two hour mark and the fire dept has just started to spray water toward the blown out windows on the 29th floor. That is problematic as the typical fire floor rating is only two hours. This calls into question the whole strategy of having civilians above the fire stay where they are. I have much more to add, but am going back to the coverage for now.

Saturday, December 04, 2004

Nobel Prize for Joan Rivers

The coincidence of the report that Americans are delaying marriage and a column by Debra Pickett have reminded me that I ought to nominate Joan Rivers for a Nobel Prize in social anthropology for her brilliant description of the Modern American Princess through it’s sub-species the Jewish American Princess. Clearly, you do not have to be Jewish to be an American Princess. Indeed, Halle Berry starred in the movie BAPS about Black American Princesses. And there is the male analog, the Modern American Princeling with various sub-species such as the Metrosexual. As long as these types are ascendant, marriages will continue to be delayed. Debra provides an example in her Chalupa column. Since she once included some of my comments in her column, perhaps she’ll take this additional bit of advice. When The Boyfriend orders, simply display your team spirit by adding con brio “and two cannolis!” Maybe then he’ll start to think about becoming The Husband.

Manufacturing's Front Lines

Being a pajamahadeen is a low paying (or is that non-paying?) job but it has it’s psychic benefits. Due to a bit of help from Thomas Lifton of The American Thinker, I got my first comment to one of my posts. Thanks Jack! Thomas recently ran a fine article on engineers, Engineers and Terrorists. So as part of my request for him to send me some traffic, I volunteered to become his engineering correspondent. I’ve got the basic outline for the first article ready, I just need to finish the project. It should be ready this week. Of course on Friday, CBS will release it’s Rathergate report, so if the Texas Air National Guard FOIA info comes in this could be a busy week.

But I got some news in my “real” job that might depress you. So here’s a report from the front lines of American manufacturing. The bad news is that short time horizon MBA’s are in decision making positions. It’s like dealing with Dilbert’s pointy haired boss. We are a manufacturer’s representative. This means we provide the sales expertise for companies that do not have a large enough customer base to afford an in-house sales force. So we get paid commissions for sales of their products within our sales territory. If we don’t’ sell it, it does not get sold. Then nobody has a job! And we have to capitalize the sale from initial contact until months after the manufacturer gets paid on his invoice. Only then do we get paid! It’s a tough job. But their spreadsheet sales management types view us with suspicion. And it is much too easy to shift the blame to us rather on themselves or their co-workers within the manufacturer whom they see personally every day.

As you probably know, we had a prolonged recession in manufacturing. Times have been tough. This makes management unhappy with the sales performance. They tend to do one or both of two things, they fire their sales manager and get a new golden boy or they fire the rep. Things in the rep business have gotten so bad that there is a looming shortage of reps to hire once you’ve fired your existing rep, but foolish hope (think Dilbert) springs eternal and they do it anyway.

The news I got is that a customer I had developed for one manufacturer has made progress in developing their invention, the Armstrong Process. It is nearing commercial operation. If you read the link you’ll see that they are a start-up company that has DARPA support for their process. Their product will be a titanium powder. The potential is enormous. I worked with them back in the salad days and designed and sold them their Reactor. They have just ordered three more reactors.

This should be good news, except the third new sales manager in a year fired us in the interim. We expected him to follow his own companies' policies and pay us commission for material specified and installed in our territory, but invoiced outside the territory. He was offended that we expected to get paid for our work and fired us! Unfortunately, he’s not alone in this attitude. Another principal has an employee who keeps saying that we would be better off if we stopped worrying about our commission (our sole source of income) and concentrated on selling. He’s also willing to let us discount his products to meet competition but at reduced commission rates. On some items this means getting the order at zero commission!

I’ve got to find a way to make pajamaheen a paying job!

Friday, December 03, 2004

The Birkett Solution

Jack’s comment on the previous post deserves an expanded explanation. My desire to agitate to reduce the murder rate in Chicago was inflamed during the 2002 election cycle. For those unfamiliar with Illinois politics a little background is in order. The then current governor of Illinois was George Ryan (Republican). He was under intense media criticism for the “Licenses for Bribes” scandal from his previous position as Illinois Secretary of State. Here is a brief "License for Bribes" timeline. Everywhere in the media you could hear an echo of the Democratic line that this was the “worst scandal in Illinois history” and that innocent children had died in a fiery minivan wreck due to the language deficiencies of a truck driver who did not understand radio warnings that a part was likely to fall off his truck. It did, the minivan ran over the part and burst into flames killing the children. (We’ll see how this withstands the test of time in the litigation over the E2 nightclub fire and Lincoln Park porch collapse disasters).
As a diversion, Governor Ryan ended up pardoning all the convicted murderers on Death Row because several (13?) had been found to have been wrongly convicted. Many of these convictions came due to illegal police tactics in the Chicago Police Department. An alleged mastermind of this situation was John Burge. The poster boys for the media were Rolando Cruz and the DuPage Seven.
In this volatile atmosphere, the Democrats were running a relative novice for Illinois Attorney General, Lisa Madigan. Her chief qualification seemed to be that she is the daughter of the Illinois House Majority Leader, Mike Madigan. Her opponent was DuPage County States Attorney, Joe Birkett. Mr. Burkett has an extremely strong law enforcement record. Ms. Madigan had zero experience and tried to minimize the law enforcement aspects of the job as a minor part of the job. She contended that the job is more directed toward consumer protection. (Note that this was pre 9/11, and the media applauded).
So with all this bleeding heart liberalism about and concern of even a single innocent individual being executed, I thought WHAT ABOUT ALL THOSE MURDER VICTIMS! Where is the concern for those hundreds? And it also occurred to me that, at least in the year 2000, Mr. Birkett had a universal solution. What was that? The answer is in the county murder statistics, DuPage County Murders 2000-2001. In 2000 DuPage had ZERO, REPEAT ZERO MURDERS! No murders means no murder victims and no wrongful conviction. Side benefits would include reduced expenses for courts and prisons. The whole concept proved beyond the ken of media commentators such as Mark Brown.
Which brings us to a point where we can go back to Iraq. As the good liberals tell us, we should value human life. It is a tragedy that over 1000 Americans have died in Iraq. But it is also a tragedy that over 1000 Americans have died in Chicago. Both need our attention. And I do not see any liberals suggesting that we should withdraw the police from Chicago’s streets. As to the value of Iraqi life, it too should be important. But isn’t it likely the number of Iraqis dying is lower now during the insurgency than it was under the tender mercies of Saddam, Usay & Qusay? In both places the desired result is the Birkett Solution, ZERO DEATHS. And while me will take some casualties along the way, the only way to get there is to suppress the worst criminal elements, not to ignore them or as John Kerry put it “treat is like a nuisance”.

Fighting Insurgents in the 'Hood

As mentioned in my previous post, Annie Sweeney of the Chicago Sun-Times has written some excellent articles recently. First, she did a series of three articles from Iraq. Then came her article on Chicago’s declining murder rate. In each are insights that support my thesis that fighting the Iraqi insurgency is akin to fighting violent street gangs in Chicago. I arrived at this conclusion during all the lamentations about the loss of 1000 Americans in Iraq. My initial insight was that the number of Americans killed by hostile action in Iraq was quite close to the number of Americans murdered in Chicago during the same period. Ms. Sweeney is projecting 418 murders in 2004 with one month to go. The figure from 2003 was 599 murders. So over the period of 2003-2004 we project 1017 murders in Chicago. The current count from Iraq is 1098 and counting. So if it is fair to put pressure on President Bush to suppress the insurgency in Iraq, it is also fair to put pressure on Mayor Daley to suppress the street gangs in Chicago. The good news is both men are succeeding! (I’ve had comments that ask why not include Iraqi casualties, I’d say why not include Columbian casualties of the drug war? The broad answer is that if we succeed by my metrics, we will also succeed in reducing civilian casualties).
Having had decades of experience in listening to why we couldn’t reduce murder rates, it is interesting to learn how we can actually do it. Let’s review some comments from Ms. Sweeney’s article, Iraq's separate peace.

“On a Saturday afternoon in Iraq, between Baghdad and Camp Anaconda, the countryside looks a little like Wisconsin. There are farmers tilling fields and women walking on roads. Freight trains and major highways.
This wasn't exactly what I expected when I left for the war-ravaged country the first week of September. And initially, it made me feel lousy.
Here in Chicago I tend to cover breaking crime stories where the action is intense -- grieving victims, burned-out buildings, angry neighbors.
I expected this type of human drama in Iraq, and apparently others did, too. When I came back after three weeks, all everybody wanted to know was how scared I was.
Iraq was hot and smelly. It was dirty and dusty. Mortars sometimes boomed in the distance.
But I can't describe it as scary. I didn't see the hard-core stuff, and a lot of soldiers who live and work there don't, either.”

“Sgt. Timothy O'Brien, 40, has been fighting both here and in Fallujah, another hotspot. He has taken gunfire regularly and calls what he has been involved in "the worst war movie you'd see on TV.''
He describes the fight as a chase of sorts. As soon as the United States shuts down one area, the insurgency moves to another.
O'Brien's words made him seem almost like a Chicago cop characterizing the gang problems that spark hundreds of shootings here each year. Police shut down a drug market on one corner, and up pops another.
"It's like you trace it from one area to another,'' O'Brien said of the insurgency he deals with each day.”

“But Mahmood also has been working with the military long enough to know this: There are good soldiers and bad soldiers, and the bad ones are giving America a bad name. In his words, some are "crap'' who insult the Muslim religion and are too heavy-handed.
"Always,'' he said. "The U.S. Army use too much power in the raids. Always. . . . Every time they kill innocent guy or raid a house they make new enemy.''
This makes me think of the people I've seen lined up at Chicago Police board meetings to complain about the conduct of certain cops or the young black kids who have been rounded up on a corner, searched and interrogated, only to be let go.”

Do you see what I mean? Strong parallels between Chicago and Iraq. Notice also how different her voice is from that of the wire service accounts. This is reporting, not regurgitation. So how are things on the front in Chicago? Once again, Ms. Sweeney in her own words.

“After Chicago was branded the nation's murder capital in 2001, city leaders traveled to New York and Los Angeles to pick up crime-fighting tips.
Now those cities might want to take some tips from us.
Chicago will likely end the year with its lowest murder tally since 1965 thanks to a huge decline in killings in some of the city's toughest neighborhoods. There were 418 killings through Tuesday -- 25 percent fewer than the same 11-month period of 2003, police said.”

“…Chicago Police Department, which borrowed some New York crime-fighting strategies, is more narrowly focused on violence, said Dennis Rosenbaum, a University of Illinois at Chicago professor of criminal justice who is studying the department's approach.
"I think it's a very impressive story," Rosenbaum said. "It's about the superintendent (Phil Cline) getting everybody on the same page. That page is focused on violence reduction, focused on gangs and guns and drugs; really trying to take out the drug markets. The deployment is more efficient and surgical."

“Homicides have fallen most sharply in police districts where violence has been the most entrenched over the years. The Harrison District on the West Side has seen homicides fall by 54 percent; the Deering District on the South Side by 46 percent; and Austin District on the Far West Side by 25 percent. Shootings have fallen sharply, too, officials say. There were 5,417 aggravated batteries and aggravated assaults by firearm in the first 10 months of 2003, compared to 4,483 for the same period of 2004 -- a 17 percent drop.”

My conclusion is we are winning in both places and can expect to see the insurgencies fail. The initial reports of massive arrests of gang members is another step forward. But it should be noted that along the way, there can be very tough days. Laura Washington of the Sun-Times wrote an article on 2/2/04 (available through their archives @ $2.95) about the jump in the use of lethal force by the Chicago police in 2003. There were 17 such incidents. But the numbers suggest that those 17 helped save 599 - 418 = 181 other lives. A better than ten-to-one tradeoff.

I highly recommend the article Let's Get Serious About Stability by Commanders Henry Hendrix II and Darryl Centanni in the current Proceedings (subscription required). Here are some other viewpoints of interest from Bob Weir and Doug Hanson in The American Thinker and James R. Rummel in Chicagoboyz.

Update 12/4
Tom Ridge personally delivers $48 million in anti-terror funds to Mayor Daley and thanks both him and his son Patrick for their efforts.